No Sophomore Slump Here!

By - Mitch Jacobs May 15th, 2007

The big talk after every draft is what rookies will be the busts and what rookies would be the stars. This year there will be much emphasis on Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch. But before we analyze how these rookies will do, let's take a look at last years rookies.

It was a huge surprise that the Houston Texans drafted Mario Williams over Reggie Bush with the first pick in the 2006 NFL Draft. Looking back on that move, their starting RB, who was slated to be Domanick Davis, who now goes by Domanick Wiliams, was later cut, and replaced with Ron Dayne and then Wali Lundy. We know how that story played out: Little production and lots of unhappy Texans fans.

Reggie Bush started his NFL career threatening to hold out until the 2007 Draft but ended up playing in all 16 games for the New Orleans Saints. Througout the season he gained over 1,200 yards on the ground and air along with eight total TDs. He also made his presence felt on punt returns where opposing teams always had to account for the elusive runner.

Let's take a deeper look in the Rookies of 2006.

Reggie Bush

The beginning of his 2006 season had draft owners questioning Bush's fantasy value, almost teasing owners until the very end of the season. He caught 34 passes in his first five games which looked to be promising but his lack of touchdowns and rushing average of only 3.1 yards per carry

frustrated fantasy owners and kept him out of many fantasy lineups on a weekly basis. So by this time I'm assuming owners were placing Reggie on the bench and waiting to see when their guy would light up. Then week 10 versus theSteelers rolls around and he shows signs of life. Reggie had 49 yards on the ground, a rushing touchdown and got you 7 catches for 40 yards. This was the time Reggie would shine. Unlike his first five games, his last five would end up a bit different. Reggie racked up seven touchdowns, averaged over 5 yards per carry on the ground, and caught 24 passes. He peaked at the perfect time for fantasy owners who had drafted him high in the preseason.

In 16 games Reggie caught 88 balls, which was 10th best out of all receivers. That was more than some big-named wide receivers such as Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Roy Williams, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald! Reggie had finally found the end zone more frequently, which catapulted his fantasy value. Congratulations if you are a Reggie Bush owner in a keeper league, because his stock will do nothing but rise as he heads into the future.

Joseph Addai

With the loss of Edgerrin James, Colts fans were wondering if the combination of Dominick Rhodes and Joseph Addai could take the superstar running backs place. For Colts fans, it didn't take very long for them to forget about "Edge." It was a different story altogether for fantasy owners though. Addai did well for a rookie but only accumulated 3 or 4 games of quality fantasy value. His top performance was against the Eagles in week 12, in which he ran for 171 yards and 4 TDs! What many people need to notice is that Addai played in 16 games but only received 14 carries a game on average, which his predecessor Dominic Rhodes ran away with almost 12 carries per game and had 4 touchdowns of 2 yards or less.

Addai led all rookies with 1081 yards rushing, while splitting time with Rhodes. In 2007 Addai will be splitting time with no one, unless DeDe Dorsey does something immaculate in training camp, which is highly unlikely. The great situation with the Colts is there is a general lack of pressure to run the ball, which was why Edge was healthy and remained consistent in his tenure at Indy. Look for Addai to excel that role in 2007 as he should improve significantly on his 2006 numbers.

Marques Colston

This guy had to be the No. 1 free agent pickup of the season last year. There was a lot of talk of this kid immediately in the fantasy world, especially if you had him early enough for his tight end eligibility. He was a great fantasy pickup for owners especially mid-season as he racked up 455 yards on 27 catches along with 3 touchdowns, in weeks 8, 9 and 10. While the WR position for the Saints had many solid performances, with the likes of Devery Henderson, Joe Horn and Reggie Bush, Colston seemed to shine above all. The addition of Drew Brees to the roster was the direct reason for this and these players should continue to flourish with a full year under their belt. We are NOT seeing a sophomore slump in store for Colston as 2007 approaches.

The Saints are loaded at the wide receiver position, with Colston, Henderson and Copper. They got rid of veteran Joe Horn, but added free agent David Patten and drafted first round pick Robert Meachem. Look for Colston's value to hold strong, since he is the most talented and steady of the bunch. Meachem will take some time to adjust to the pro game, so we don't see him significantly impacting Meachum's numbers until 2008.

Matt Leinart

One of the biggest surprises of the NFL Draft was the fall of USC QB Matt Leinart to the tenth pick. The Cardinals were ecstatic to see the talent QB fall to them and were even more impressed when he took the controls of their offense. Leinart was starting by the fifth game of the season and was able to use his various weapons on offense to become a fantasy factor in his rookie season, which is rare for a QB. While his numbers weren't sparkling all the time, you could see the potential there, all he needed was time and a more stable offensive line.

Fast forward to 2007 and the Cardinals have a new head coach in Ken Whisenhunt and a new right tackle to protect Leinart's blind side in Levi Brown. With weapons like Edgerrin James, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin in the lineup, the future looks bright for Leinart and he could be one of your cornerstone players if you are in a keeper league. It's only going to be a matter of time until he and his running mates become comfortable with their new offense. When that happens opposing teams better look out and fantasy owners better take notice!